Midwest and West Region Previews

Let me first say that I am probably so far off base here in the long run that I have successfully cost myself $20 dollars. Not only that but in trying to figure out how to not pick the same Final Four as 97.5% of ESPN I may have completely destroyed what was once a promising bracket. Oh how far I've fallen since picking 6 of last seasons final eight correctly. I have on MORE than one occasion completely ignored my own pre-bracket release predictions. I have officially filed Jay Bilas, Digger Phelps and even Hubert Davis under the growing "should be unemployed" list that is set to debut in the next few weeks. Whether they're right or not, picking strait chalk across the bracket is nothing but cowardly. Doug Gottlieb should be spending more time on the Game Day set than any of those three. At least he had the cajones to pick UNLV into the Elite 8 to go with all his chalk. Also for more preview action from your favorite analyst you don't have to listen to check out my rundown over at JCMJ.

Midwest

Round 1

#1 Florida - #16Jackson State
Obviously taking the Gators here, but it should be fun the watch the Nations #2 scorer in Trey Johnson of J-State.

#8 Arizona - #9 Purdue
I'm going to take Arizona here even though my head screams Purdue will win. Arizona has the talent for sure but they've played so bad over the past month or so you wonder if Marcus Williams is just ready to be drafted already. Arizona is getting the same "could beat the #1 seed" hype it got last year from ESPN. I'll ruin my predictions now and say they will not.

#5 Butler - #12 Old Dominion
I almost don't even care anymore who wins this game. I'd rather ODU had drawn USC and Butler was hosting Arkansas but what can you do? I expect Butler to force ODU to shoot a lot of three's something the Monarchs are not the greatest at. ODU getting handled by George Mason decides this one for me. I'll take Butler in what I could argue is an upset.

#4 Maryland - #13Davidson
Trust me I want to take Davidson because Maryland is a threat to the Gators but I'll go with the Terps here. I'm looking forward to getting a look at Stephen Curry as I missed the SoCon final last week.

#6 Notre Dame - #11 Winthrop
I'm taking Winthrop but I think this game could resemble the VMI-Winthrop Big South final. I look forward to Digger's boys going down in round 1. I just wish I could they'd get blown out.

#3 Oregon - #14 Miami, Ohio
I'm going to assume Miami is a 14 because they pre-seeded the MAC winner expecting a Toledo or Akron champion. Miami finished the season 18-14 and needed the ugliest buzzer beater of all-time to beat Akron. I think Oregon walks in what could be the most lopsided first round game of this region.

#7 UNLV - #10 Georgia Tech
So Ga. Tech hasn't won but one true road game in two years you say? Well its sink or swim for me with this pick as I'm taking Ga. Tech here and that my friends is not all.

#2 Wisconsin - #15 Texas A&M-CC
I think this will be closer than the fans in Madison would hope. But the game is in Chicago and if Wisconsin lost this I one of my friends may indeed bust out the noose. With that in mind I'm taking Wisconsin but I wouldn't be shell shocked if TAMU-CC pulls it off.

2nd Round

#1 Florida - #8 Arizona
Arizona shows up about as well as they did against Oregon and Florida blows through the first weekend forgetting they even played a game.

#5 Butler - #4 Maryland
Congratulations Butler you performed perfectly as far as seed expectations go. Maryland should shut Graves down and knock off the Bulldogs without too much trouble.

#11 Winthrop - #3 Oregon
Much like Winthrop first round game this one will be a fast paced three point shootout. I want to take the Eagles here but they got a bad draw. Oregon wins in a close one.

#2 Wisconsin - #10 Georgia Tech
My falling opinion of Wisconsin since Brian Butch's injury is well documented. I like the Yellow Jackets and their horrendous road record to spring the upset. If UNLV beat Ga. Tech I like them to beat Wisconsin also for the record.

Sweet 16

My original bracket had a Sweet 16 of Florida, Old Dominion, Winthrop and Georgia Tech. I felt I was a little double digit heavy and cut it down. Plus I did some actual research on a few teams.

#1 Florida - #4 Maryland
The winner of this game WILL win the region. I'm going to take Florida as I think their overall balance will be enough to get past the Terps.

#3 Oregon - #10 Georgia Tech
I'm going to take the Ducks and their quartet of guards in this one assuming the shooting touch is still there two weeks removed from the Pac-10 tourney championship.


Elite Eight

#1 Florida - #3 Oregon
It pains me to have nearly the same two at the end of this bracket as the rest of the nation. But what can I say I like both of these teams a lot. The first Nine N' 5 will attest to that. To bad the Ducks didn't fall into the South they could have ruined some brackets. But in this region they're one of the favorites, go figure right? It's somewhat ironic Florida will take out another four guard team to make the Final Four.

West

1st Round

#1 Kansas - #16 Niagara
As much as I love Purple Eagles, especially the occasional sighting over the falls. I think Kansas wins this one but it'll be a little bit closer than expected.

#8 Kentucky - #9 Villanova
It looks like Nardi's not going to play in this one but I'll still take Villanova. I say Scottie Reynolds goes insane and drops 41 for a new career high.

#5 Virgina Tech - #12 Illinois
Here I go completely ignoring my previous predictions as I take Illinois to knock off Virgina Tech. Va. Tech is way to inconsistent for my taste and as bad as Illinois was this season I think they'll slow the Hokies down and take them out of their comfort zone. It'll still be tight but I think Illinois sneaks by.

#4 Southern Illinois - #13 Holy Cross
This could be one of the best games of the first round as both teams specialize at the defensive end. These two have nearly identical PPG (63.15/64.24) and PPGA (56.45/57.36) totals and I wouldn't be shocked to see this game end in a 1 point win for.... Southern Illinois. I almost have to pick them so there you go.

#6 Duke - #11 VCU
While they're from the CAA they're not George Mason, its VCU. New head coach, and former Florida Assistant Anthony Grant steps in and leads VCU to the CAA regular and conference titles in his first year. That's impressive given the strength at the top of the CAA this season. I'm going to roll with VCU here as I hate Duke, and they'd lose in round 2 anyway so who cares. That damn Sweet 16 streak ends this year Coach K.

#3Pittsburgh - #14 Wright State
I was all set to take Pitt who I think is the most over rated team of all those in the "Major" conferences. But to hell with it, I said last week I'd take Wright State if these two played so to hell with it that's what I'm going to do. DaShaun Wood I'm counting on you to make me a genius.
#7 Indiana - #10 Gonzaga
This one is quite the toss up from my perspective. I'll take Indiana as I think the D.J. White and Earl Calloway will play well against Gonzaga's no defense approach.

#2 UCLA - #15 Weber State
See Ben Howland take on his Alma-mater. See Ben Howland's Bruins trounce his Alma-mater.

Second Round

#1 Kansas - #9 Villanova
I think Brandon Rush for the most part puts the clamps down on Scottie Reynolds as Kansas advances to the round of 16 for the first time in three seasons.

#4 Southern Illinois - #12 Illinois
As much as I hate to say it Bruce Webber will meet his former team and send them home earlier than I'd like. This one could be ugly to watch as I'd expect the final score to barely get over 50.

#11 VCU - #14 Wright State
As much as I'd like to pick Wright State here a #14 seed has never beaten a #11 in the second round. Not to mention I'm already on a huge limb taking WSU to beat Pitt.

#2 UCLA - #7 Indiana
The Gonzaga rematch is avoided but the result is just the same for the Bruins. They'll get past Indiana without a whole lot of trouble as D.J. White gets into foul trouble early.

Sweet 16

#1 Kansas - #12 Illinois
Much like it would have been with the Southern Illinois boys Illinois's defense will annoy Kansas. In the end the 'Hawks pull away for a relatively comfortable win. By relatively I mean 6+ by the way.

#11 VCU - #2 UCLA
For all those Ben Howland plays two teams he has ties to fans I'm sorry. Pitt will not make it this far or anywhere for that matter and UCLA will win again. I wish VCU was Final Four bound but I just don't see it. UCLA should win in a somewhat close game by 10.

Elite Eight

#1 Kansas - #2 UCLA
It looks like nothing but chalk if you scrolled directly to this spot but it's not. The Bruins get Julian Wright into quick foul trouble running one guy after another at the big man forcing him to spend most of the first half on the bench. This allows UCLA to build a comfortable 9 point halftime lead that they barely hold onto in one of the most thrilling game of the tournament so far.

Well that's it for the first two regions. Thoughts? Am I a complete jackass? Let know if you feel so inclined.

You've got to be kidding me

As I visited all the major sports sites today I found myself shocked. Not only was I generally agreeing with all the so called experts I currently have the same Final Four as a number of them. The so called experts are wrong every year. These guys get paid to cover this stuff yet they can't pick a bracket to save their lives. Now that I'm suddenly agreeing with them I see something very, very interesting coming this weekend. If you thought last year was crazy just wait for this weekend.

I have a feeling we may be looking at the most upset heavy opening weekend in recent memory. Never mind a Mid-Major in the Final Four because I don't see one who can pull it off this season. Instead settle for a pair of potential #14 seeds in the Sweet 16 (Wright State, Oral Roberts). Three double digit seeds still standing come the second weekend in the Midwest (Ga. Tech, Winthrop, and Old Dominion). The supposed bad SEC should show well, I see a little Tennessee vengeance if the rematch with Ohio State happens. Both Missouri Valley schools should survive the opening weekend Creighton as continues to roll after their Conference Tourney win.

In the next few days I'll really dive deep into this as I try to slowly overhaul my bracket so it looks nothing like anything Jay Bilas would pick. Because we all know Jay Bilas is a moron who likes to start arguments with Joe Lunardi when all Lunardi is doing is trying to predict what the committee will do. Tomorrow night when I return from class I will start looking at the regions making my official upset picks and locking my bracket down so that I can end this month about $500 richer than I started it.

The Nine N' 5 3/11/2007 Final Edition

For the final edition of The Nine N' Five this season I'm throwing out all previous standings. No longer does it matter where you were in the last nine a week and a half ago. The following nine are the most likely to walk away Nation Champions in order of most to least likely. Without further ado here are my Nine most likely Champions come April 2nd.

1. Florida Gators
I have to give Florida the #1 slot after playing well in the SEC tournament winning each game by 17+ points. They key for the Gators is defense and keeping their bigs out of foul trouble. If they can do that I think The Gators will be repeat National Champions in 2007.

2. North Carolina Tar Heels
Arguably the most talented team in the country, not to mention the deepest. The Tar Heels ended NC State's Cinderella run in the ACC tourney 89-80 today to capture their first ACC Tourney championship since 1998. They're the biggest threat to Florida in large part because of their inside depth. They'll be able to run one guy after another at Noah and Horford to try and get the two Florida bigs into foul trouble. I expect Florida to miss playing them though as both should be a #1 Seed and UNC could get beat by a more experienced and consistent club before they reach Atlanta.

3. Kansas Jayhawks
Probably the second deepest team in the nation after UNC. The Hawks fantastic trio of perimeter guys (Rush, Collins, and Chalmers) combined with Julian Wrights versatility make the Jayhawks a very tough team to defend. It's important for Wright to stay out of foul trouble if the Jayhawks are going to reach Atlanta and compete for the National Championship.

4. Georgetown Hoyas
Jeff Green alone has carried this team over the last month or so with unexpected help from Patrick Ewing Jr. in the Big East Tournament. Roy Hibbert needs to be more aggressive inside and impose his will on defenders if they do indeed hope to win the National Championship.

5. UCLA Bruins
No team has ever won the National Championship after losing their first game in their conference tournament. UCLA could be the exception to the rule but their lack of true quality up front will ultimately be there undoing. Not to mention Aaron Afflalo can be shut down as we seen in the Cal game. Something likely to happen should they run into a team with a perimeter stopper.

6. Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies defense alone makes them a Final Four contender but will their lack of offensive punch due them in? Acie Law is fantastic but outside of him no one on the team other than maybe Joseph Jones has been consistent enough on the offensive end. I think in the end their offense probably costs them the Championship but a Final Four berth is what I'm expecting.

7. Texas Longhorns
They've morphed from the greenest team in the country to arguably the most dangerous. No one wants to see this team as the 3-4 seed in their region. Kevin Durant is incredibly difficult to defend because of his length. He can get his shot off whenever he wants and he also dominates on the glass at both ends. This team does seem to tired down the stretch of games and I could see that costing them the Final Four this year. Next year Durant or not though this team will be back in the mix.

8. Ohio State Buckeyes
Its not secret I do not like the Buckeyes at all. They tend to forget who their playing with at times and tend to fall in love with the 3-ball. I think theirs a goo chance they don't even make the Elite 8. That said I'm not a genius by any stretch and it wouldn't totally shock me if the Buckeyes cruised to Atlanta. When they get their though they'll be going home. They've lost to every top tier team they've played except Wisconsin. I for the record do not have Wisconsin on the top tier anymore.

9. Wisconsin Badgers
I feel like I have to include the Badgers on this list given what they've accomplished this season. With that said I think Wisconsin is the worst of all the teams projected to land on the top 2 seed lines. Since losing Brian Butch they're offense, which was already slow has bogged down even more. They scored just 26 points in the first half of the Big Ten final against Ohio State. The Badgers only chance for a title is Alando Tucker taking over every game they play. Tucker doesn't really have that personality and I'd be very surprised if he suddenly developed it over night.

Honorable Mentions: Memphis, Louisville, Oregon, and Southern Illinois.

The Final 5: Most Likely First Round Upsets at First Glance

5. #11 Winthrop over #6 Notre Dame
4. #12 Old Dominion over #5 Butler
3. #14 Wright State over #3 Pittsburgh
2. #14 Oral Roberts over #3 Washington State
1. #13 Albany over #4 Virgina

A few notes, Drexel getting left out when Stanford, Illinois and Purdue all got in. At least ODU got in. Kinda thought the reason Drexel would get in was because Syracuse was likely to get and they beat them. Neither get in though and the ODU-Drexel head to head may have cost the Dragons.

I'll have more tourney coverage as the week progresses.

Collecting My Prize

After winning the Battle for the Aggro-Crag College Hoops Pick 'em over at Just Call Me Juice (along with Signal To Noise) I was given a guest spot on JCMJ. I elected to stay in the CBB vein and posted "Who Could Be This Years.." a look at who could be this years versions of George Mason, LSU etc. It's all just speculation based on what I've seen this year and how the brackets look come Sunday could change my mind entirely. That said I wanted to do it now as next week will be dedicated to the brackets themselves.

NOTE: The Nine N' Five for this week will be up in the next few days. I want to let as many conference tourneys as possible finish up and those that do not finish get a little deeper.

VMI's Coming Out Party

Yesterdays VMI-Winthrop was one of the best games I have watched all year and it emphasized why championship week (technically two weeks) is one of the best of the year in College Basketball. VMI lead the nation in scoring and steals this season running an all out press on defense and a less organized version of the Phoenix Suns offense all season. These particular philosophy's led the Keydets to a 5-9 conference record and #6 seed in the tournament. In this game VMI actually broke the Division I record for steals in a season with 490. The Keydets shocked their conference foes switching from the fun-n-gun to a more slow paced offense with a 2-3 zone base defense. After Winthrop torched VMI by 32 points and then 13 this season many expected this game to be much more of the same. This game however was very, very different. Winthrop's largest lead was nine, on the same floor that the 32 point spanking had taken place. That nine point lead was followed by a quick VMI rally to pull it close again. Every time it looked like the Eagles would pull away VMI rallied back to within 2-3 points and kept it interesting. While VMI only held maybe 1-2 leads the entire game they played very well and certainly had the Eagles a little nervous. After all this Eagles team isn't quite a lock if they lose this game despite all four of their losses coming against the RPI top 16 including an OT loss to Wisconsin. In the end Winthrop triumphed over VMI to capture the auto-bid in the Big South and save themselves from sweating it out until next Sunday night.

As much as I like the Eagles and want them to get into the tourney I almost wish they had lost just to see if they could get the at-large I think they deserve. Despite his great year I'd have to think Reggie Williams will stay in school for his senior season and if the Holmes twins (Chavis and Travis) play the way they did Saturday VMI should be good next season. I'd have to imagine the new style will stick given their tourney success. Can't help but wonder how good they might have been had they played it all season though. The familiarity would have certainly helped out I would imagine. But at least for next year I think Winthrop might just have some company on top of the Big South, don't you?

You've Got To Be Kidding, BABY!

Well I've always liked Dick Vitale for the most part even with his constant yammering on about the ACC. His distinctive ability to put Duke into the tournament whether they're 7-19 (unrealistic I know) overall or 22-4 is amazing. But this time Dickie V loses his free pass with me. Duke is one thing this is another.

"I'd take Horford over him [Noah]. You know who told me that in confidence? Billy Donovan grabbed me all alone and said the pro scouts are making a mistake. He said there's no way I would take Noah over -- he said he would never say that publicly -- over Horford."

Audio Link

I realize this isn't technically his fault but regardless, it's inexcusable. I'm going to go ahead and blame Dick for Florida's lack of defense, three point shooting and all of their other recent woes while I'm at it. Actually thats a lie, but so was saying I've always liked Dickie V. He's annoying and I more or less hate the ACC and all the people who line up to give Coach K mustache rides. I haven't seen this anywhere other than where I found it so I thought I'd chuck it out there for the rest of you to digest. The Gators have generally appeared to be quite the level headed bunch but for a reeling team could this be the final straw? After all the ugly kid needs to at least get drafted first doesn't he?

Credit: Luke Winn of SI for the link

The Nine N' 5 2/28/2007

Teams continue to fight for tournament position as we head down the home stretch of the regular season. Two top teams head into the week on two game losing streaks (UF, Wisc). Whoever wins the Big 12 surely deserves a one seed now that Florida has coughed it up, don't they? The list takes a new look this week as I drop not two but three top tier teams off the list all together after losses this past week. Partially because they don't deserve they're spot and partially because we need some fresh blood in The Nine.

1. Kansas (1) 26-4 13-2
The Jayhawks hold steady at the top spot after blowing out Iowa State and then escaping Oklahoma with a two point victory. I'm beginning to like the Hawks a lot heading into March and a Big 12 tournament title could convince me this team is finally ready for prime time. First though the Hawks must host Texas with the league title on the line in the two's only meeting of the season.
This Week: Regular Season Finale 3/3 Texas

2. UCLA (3) 25-3 14-2
The Bruins continue to be one of, if not the most consistent team in the country with a wins over Cal and Stanford. The Cardinal you may remember knocked off the Bruins earlier this season at their place. Standford didn't even make it much of a game when they traveled to Pauley falling by 14. Wazzu's loss this past week pretty much guaranteed the Bruins the Pac-10 regular season title with a win in either of their final two games. That win they'll get for sure in the season finale at Washington, that is if they don't get it Thursday in Spokane.
This Week: 3/1 @ Washington State, Regular Season Finale 3/3 @ Washington

3. Ohio State (4) 26-3 14-1
The Buckeyes finally find a way to get past Florida and that 26-point beat down the Gators handed them earlier this season after clinching the Big Ten regular season title. They barely got by Wisconsin, squeezing out the narrowest of victories with a one point win. Brian Butch's injury gives them the inside track to the Big Ten tourney title as well as a #1 seed in the dance. I still think they're going down early in the tournament regardless of their regular season achievements. They should be able to handle Michigan on the road to close out the regular season and put an end to the Wolverines season officially.
This Week: Regular Season Finale 3/3 @ Michigan

4. Florida (2) 25-5 12-3
The Gators dropped two more this week but didn't fall too far thanks to losses by the majority of those behind them in the standings. This team is finishing a lot like last years team did but I just don't know if they can pull off the repeat the way they're playing. They're no longer a #1 seed though I think that could be good for a team that would prefer to be the underdog. Al Horford is the only player who still plays defense when they get down and if that continues the Gators will end their repeat bid on the first weekend. The LSU loss in unforgivable though LSU has looked better without Glen Davis in the lineup if you can believe that. The Tennessee loss didn't really surprise me as I was expecting it the way they've played on the road recently. If they lose their finale to Kentucky at home this week and go out early in the conference tourney the Gators could be looking at a #3 seed if those below them can close strong.
This Week: Regular Season Finale 3/4 Kentucky

5. Southern Illinois (9)
The Salukis wrapped up the MVC regular season title last Saturday with a win over Evansville. If they can win the conference tournament they could get as high as a #3 seed, but I see them as a #4. I don't expect them to win "Arch Madness" as it usually features quite a few upsets and a Mo State, or Bradley tourney victory isn't out of the question.
This Week: Conference Tournament 3/1-4

6. Memphis (UNR) 25-3 14-0
I am finally giving the Tigers their due in The Nine with the six spot this week as they have already clinched the Conference USA regular season title and are looking likely to sneak into the dance as a #3 seed. While I think Memphis has talent just like last year I think they benefited from a good draw last season and it's unlikely that happens again. For that reason I think the Tigers go home earlier than they're expecting but the Sweet 16 is not out of the question.
This Week: 3/1 @ UTEP Regular Season Finale 3/3 @ SMU

7. Washington State (5) 23-5 12-4
The loss this week at Oregon really didn't surprise me as the Ducks did beat them in Spokane. The Ducks however had been struggling of late and I expected that to continue but was wrong. I still like Wazzu a lot in the dance and they should still get at the very least a #4 seed. A share of the Pac-10 title would help and they can take a step in that direction with a win over UCLA on Thursday. I think they find a way to beat the Bruins but I like UCLA's chances of knocking off Wazzu's in-state rival on Saturday.
This Week: 3/1 UCLA, Regular Season Finale 3/3 USC

8. Nevada (UNR) 26-2 13-1
The Wolf Pack also garners a little respect this week finally moving from the "Also Considered" into the The Nine after picking up their ninth consecutive win this past week at Boise State. Nevada was shaky in their Bracket Busters game two weeks ago actually trailing Northern Iowa at halftime before cruising to a fifteen point victory. That raised some red flags for me and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pack go down in round one again this season. I'd like to think Nick Fazekas won't go out like that and that Marcellus Kemp won't let him. Only time will tell but I think Nevada absolutely has to win the WAC tourney to try and get themselves a #4 seed to have a better chance to advance in March.
This Week: 3/1 @ Utah State, Regular Season Finale 3/3 New Mexico State, Conference Tourney 3/6-10

9. Texas (UNR) 22-7 12-3
This spot was all A&M's if they had beaten Texas tonight in Austin, they obviously did not. Texas outlasts their in-state rival in double overtime despite some heroics by Acie Law who just did not want to lose. Texas has continued to show improvement over the weeks and qualify as a decent sleeper come dance time. If they do beat Kansas on Saturday that sleeper talk goes by the wayside and Texas is officially a contender. I don't think it happens but I wouldn't be shocked to see Texas in Atlanta come April as they certainly have the talent, they've definitely been tested this season, and that youth seems to be starting to ware off unlike those guys in Columbus. Remember folks Texas A&M blitzed these guys 100-82 less than a month ago tonight ti took two overtime's for A&M to get within four points off 100. The venue certainly plays a factor but I think Texas is playing much better over the last month and I wouldn't want to see Kevin Durant in an elimination situation that's for sure.
This Week: Regular Season Finale 3/3 @ Kansas

Dropped Out: Wisconsin (6), North Carolina (7), Georgetown (8)

Also Considered: BYU, Louisville, Maryland, Drexel

This Weeks 5:
My favorite Bracket Busters if they get into the dance and draw a team like Pittsburgh or Oregon in the first round.
5. San Diego State - What can I say? I like this team and have since last year when they should have beaten Indiana last year.
4. Winthrop - How do you not like a team that barely lost to UNC on the road and took Wisconsin to overtime?
3. Old Dominion - They can play with anyone, need evidence? They beat G'Town in D.C. by 13 earlier this year.
2. Appalachian State - With wins over Vandy, VCU, and Wichita State its hard not to think this team can pull off an upset. They need to win the conference tourney though and Davidson will have something to say about that.
1. Drexel - All I can say is Road Warriors and with the tourney at neutral sites its hard not to like the Dragons. They've knocked off 'Cuse and 'Nova both, and while they're best basketball may be behind them they showed @ Creighton they can still get it done.